Thursday, August 31, 2006

Out-Roving Rove

I've kept my blog pretty non-political so far, not so much out of an active decision but out of having nothing good enough to write about. An article I read in Newsweek today has given me just that. It talked about Karl Rove's nefarious strategies, and what Democrats have been doing wrong in relation to them. It didn't, however, go into what Democrats really should be doing. I've been relatively disappointed with the Democrats lately, but they're still a vast improvement over the Republicans, so I'm here to go into what I think they should be doing.

First, let's go over what Rove does that's so successful. Instead of attacking the enemy's weakness, he attacks their strength--generally with lies. When up against Gore in 2000, he turned Gore's championing of the internet around and made it look like Gore was exaggerating about it, painting a picture of him as a big exaggerator (this didn't stop Gore from winning the election (which a total recount of all votes in Florida showed), but then they just stole it anyway). When up against Kerry in 2004, he attacked Kerry's reputation as a war hero by manufacturing the Swift Boat scandal, which was composed of people who weren't in Kerry's boat but had connections to the Bush administration claiming that the people who were in Kerry's boat, the official record, and even the Vietnamese who hated Kerry were lying about what transpired.

So, onto what Democrats should do this time:

When Rove attacks your strong points, fight back.

If the Republicans try to bring up the Iraq war and characterize you as cut-and-runners, accept the subject but reject their analysis of it. Go into detail about all the screw-ups the Republicans have made over there, and if they try to challenge you about what you'd do to change things, don't go into detail. (It's not as intellectually honest as I'd prefer, but this is politics, not science.) Characterize them as the ones who created and are perpetuating a problem, and say that if people want to actually fix the problem, they should vote democratically.

Of course, don't entirely evade the question of what you'd do in Iraq, but also be sure to challenge them on what they're going to do. If they give the old "Stay the course" line, respond that "This course has lead the country into ruin. Do you want to go further in that direction?" As for what you'd do, give general platitudes as Nixon did in relation to pulling out of Vietnam. Say general political crap like "Reach out to Sunnis," "Train Iraqi soldiers to take care of their own country," and "Slowly reduce American presence." The public doesn't want to hear about the details and probably won't understand them anyway.

Attack the Republicans' strong points.

The Republicans have three major appeals these days: to the wealthy, religious, and pseudo-patriotic. The wealthy aren't a good target here as they're few in number, and their major contribution (money) has already been given by the campaigning stage. Rather, attack their religious and patriotic appeal. But importantly, this shouldn't be done with lies, but with inconvenient truths.

First, for the religious appeal. They do a good job (way too good) of voting with the religious right on many issues, so that's not a good aspect to attack. Instead, depict the candidates acting in blatantly non-Christian manners. Bring up scandal stories of them doing drugs as kids (easy to show with Bush himself), political corruption (ditto), and lying (ditto again), all very un-Christian actions. And of course, don't do any of that yourselves.

Secondly, their pseudo-patriotic appeal. I use the "pseudo" prefix as a lot of what they do is faking it. They simply say that following them is patriotic rather than prove it. Point this out. Also harp on how this is a democracy, government by the people. It's patriotic to do our job in watching the politicians. Use a tagline like "Patriotism is obedience in a dictatorship. In a democracy, it's vigilance." You might even want to point out how the whole Plame Affair constitutes treason, and there's good reason to believe some top officials were behind it.

Attack the Republicans' weak points.

This one is pretty obvious, and the Dems have already been doing a lot of it. Keep up with old talking points like how no net jobs have been created since Bush took office (meaning we have just as many, if not fewer, jobs today as we did back then, despite increasing population). Their disregard for the environment is another big one (use some of the publicity created by Gore's recent movie for this). Last but not least, their attempt to subvert science is really bad. It shows that these guys aren't invested in finding the truth and doing the best thing with it; they're invested in advancing their political agenda.

Proceed with your information binge...

Monday, August 28, 2006

The Bill of Rights in Action

I was watching NBC news tonight, and a couple of stories caught my eye. First of all, John Mark Karr, who recently confessed to the murder of Jon Benet Ramsey, has been released. This story is interesting as it highlights one of the reasons behind the Fifth Amendment, which prevents people from being able to testify against themselves.

This also means that an admission of guilt alone is not sufficient grounds to convict someone. It's greatly helpful for the police in solving a case, and can count as extremely strong evidence, but it must be supported. In this case, the admission was completely unsupported. Karr's DNA doesn't match that found at the scene of the crime, his story doesn't fit the known events, and there's no evidence establishing him at or near the scene. In this case, the Fifth Amendment serves to prevent us from jailing an innocent (if deluded) man.

Interestingly, this wasn't the initial reason for the Fifth Amendment. That reason was to prevent forced confessions, such as the type coerced in the witch hunts of infamy.

Now, for a use of the Bill I like a bit less. In this case, it's the exercise of First Amenment rights to free speech and freedom of the press. Not long after the Karr story, the news went back to their main thread of the night, looking back at the Katrina disaster. One of their guests was a man who'd written a book about the inherent racism of the situation with all the blacks living in poverty. Though I don't agree that there was any active racism involved, that's not the point I had a problem with.

The problem started when he went on to how important religion was to all of these people (firstly, it was a gross generalization and assumption). And then he said something that I really hate, and yet hear all the time: That if it weren't for their faith, they'd be lost and crazy, resorting to murder and suicide. While I respect his right to say this and NBC's right to show the story, I don't respect them for it. I'm willing to bet they wouldn't let me on the show to make a counterpoint, mentioning all of the actual murders made in the name of religion as opposed to the hypothetical murders made by hypothetical atheists.

To a religious person, I can see how a comment like that could get by. But to an atheist, it's a vicious slur. How do you think they would like it if I said that atheism is the only thing keeping many people from committing murder (though granted, I actually have evidence to support that statement). Either way, it's the First Amendment that allows me to say all this now and speak back at their slurs.

Proceed with your information binge...

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Mary Goes Reptilian

This just in: The Virgin Mary has chosen to manifest a picture of herself on a common turtle. See http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-turtle24.html for the full story. "Why would she do this?" you ask. Uh... heretic! Burn him!

And at the very same time, Jesus Christ himself has decided to manifest on an MRI scan. It's true. It looks like it, so it must be true. Could both of these happening at the same time be a harbinger of the end times? Or could it just be indicative that these things are now chic and the media will buy any crappy story?

Proceed with your information binge...

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Sometimes they make it too easy...

Here's an advertisement for a "debate" some Creationists are hosting, found via The Panda's Thumb. Take note if you see anything odd (you might need a full notebook for this).

Darwin or Design?

Part I: Sept 29-30

Sponsored by Physicians and Surgeons for Scientific Integrity (PSSI)
• USF’s Sun Dome
Friday night, Sept 29, at 7:00 p.m.
Dr. Michael Behe, author of Darwin’s Black Box
Dr. Ralph Seelke, research scientist in microbiology
Dr. Jonathan Wells, author of Icons of Evolution

Note: High school and college faculty and students will be admitted free of charge with appropriate ID.
The admission fee for all others is $5. For more information, call (813) 974-3111.

• Radisson Hotel Ballroom, Lectures with Open Forum Saturday, Sept 30, 10:00 a.m. until noon*
Drs. Michael Behe, Ralph Seelke and Jonathan Wells
* 12600 Roosevelt Blvd., St. Petersburg - www.radisson.com/stpetersburgfl
Note: Complimentary coffee and tea served. A free-will donation will be requested to help with expenses.

Part II: November 3-4

Co-Sponsors: PSSI and The Campus Humanistic Society
• The Great Debate: Darwin or Design?
Friday evening, Nov 3, at 7:30 p.m.
Grace Family Church in Tampa**
Featuring: Dr. Stephen Meyer, Ph.D. in philosophy of science, Cambridge University
and Dr. Donald Duh, professor (emeritus) at Whatever State University
** 5101 Van Dyke Rd, Lutz, FL – www.gracefamilychurch.org

• Exploring the Evidence of Design, Saturday, Nov. 4 Calvary Baptist Church, 9:00 a.m.-noon
Christ Community Church, 1:30-4:30 p.m.***
Featuring: Dr. Stephen Meyer of the Discovery Institute, Dr. Walter Bradley, Dean of Engineering at Baylor University and co-author of The Mystery of Life’s Origin, and Dr. Thomas Woodward, professor at Trinity College and author of Doubts about Darwin and Darwin Strikes Back
*** Calvary Baptist, 110 N. McMullen Booth Rd, Clearwater – www.calvarybaptist.org; Christ Community, 6202 N Himes Ave, Tampa, (813) 879-2077 – www.tampaccc.org


Where to begin? How about the part that got me laughing out loud when I first read through it: Dr. Donald Duh(ck), professor (emeritus) at Whatever State University. I mean, are these people trying to look like jokes? To be fair, this was actually a draft that got accidentally released and published, but reading it reveals explicitly how little they care about a serious debate. Other things revealing their nefarious intentions:
  • The first part is sponsored by the Physicians and Surgeons for Scientific Integrity, which sounds good, but on a close inspection brief glance at their homepage, they're revealed to merely be Creationist lapdogs.
  • Look at the three people speaking. Behe and Wells have both written books trying to debunk Darwinism (not Evolution, the strawman of Darwinism they've created). Seelke at first looks like he might be legit, but his homepage shows that he's written a number of papers attacking evolution. So, not one person on the evolution side of the issue is speaking in the entire first part.
  • The co-sponsors for the second part are PSSI (covered above) and the "Campus Humanistic Society." Let's look at the Campus Humanistic Society... Oh, wait, it apparently doesn't exist. It's apparently a fake organization put on the poster in order to make it appear that Humanists are sponsoring the debate. And, in the vein of "Evolutionists," they've gone and added an extra suffix to "Humanist" to make it look stupid (or maybe that wasn't intentional, in which it serves to make them look stupid). This kind of reminds me of a Creationist editor over at Wikipedia who used words like "scientifical."
  • The debate is hosted at the Grace Family Church. Big conceit to neutral ground there, eh?
  • Oh look, the next item is at the Calvary Baptist Church and the Christ Community Church. If possible, even more neutral. *eyeroll*
  • And again, all the people listed for the next series of presentations are known Creationists.
  • In the end, the only person there actual on the side of Evolution Darwinism is Dr. Donald Duh(ck). They sure picked a lunker there to balance out so many Creationists, eh?

Proceed with your information binge...

Monday, August 21, 2006

At an Inconvenient Theater

Last Saturday I went out with my folks to see An Inconvenient Truth. Since some people passing through here might be wondering if it's worth their time, I figured I'd give my personal review of it here.

First of all, I'll note that if you've been fortunate enough to have attended one of Al Gore's presentations on the issue of Global Warming, this movie likely won't tell you anything you didn't learn there. The primary thread of the movie is precisely one of these presentations. It's also intermixed with relavent stories of Gore's childhood, political career, and scenes from a recent visit to China.

Technically, the movie is very well-made. The pacing is good, and it's intermixed with moments of humor to keep it from becoming too heavy. Gore's narration isn't quite the quality you'd get in most documentaries, but if you keep in mind that the actual presentation was done in entirely one take, it's actually quite amazing (though the voice-over parts seemed like they could have been better, still).

Content-wise, the movie is superb. Its intent isn't focused on what we can do to solve the problem so much as it is on shocking people into realizing we have a problem (which is the part of the issue that needs work in the US). And shock it does. I thought that I was already pretty educated on the issue of Global Warming, but some of the evidence presented still surprised me. The movie also had very good subplots, including one which showed how Gore lost his faith in the government (guess what moment it was).

So, should you see this movie? If you're anything less than sure that we have a serious problem, then definitely yes. Unfortunately, it's not playing everywhere, making it not only an inconvenient truth but an inconvenient movie. It's still worth it.

I had a couple minor quibbles with it, though. One was something I noticed on almost every graph he used: The scale didn't start at zero, giving a possibly distorted picture to those who didn't notice this. Of course, this is done all the time nowadays, so it's not that big of a deal.

Proceed with your information binge...

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Don't waste years studying, order our free booklet!

Saw an ad for this doozy while browsing at the Two Percent Company. Apparently, if you want to argue with evolution, you don't need to spend eight years earning a doctorate plus a few more in post-doctoral studies. All that knowledge is false, anyways, and evidence? What evidence? Just plug your ears and sing "I'm not listening, I'm not listening!" and the evidence all mysteriously vanishes.

Now, you might think that you'd then need to study the truths that the Bible teaches. Maybe go get ordained, study in a monastery for a few years so you can be an expert in those subjects. But nope, that's not necessary either. All you have to do is order this free* booklet, and you can argue against evolution with the best of them. Your arguments will be just as cogent as the best creationists out there.

In fact, this booklet is so good, they apparently have no qualms about tagging it with the line, "Is evolution just a theory? You can prove creation." [link added by Satan]

*Free with respect to monetary investment. Your critical thinking abilities may be forfeit.

(I thought briefly about going and debunking all of what they said, but it's like shooting fish in a a barrel. Not minnows, mind you, but great white sharks (those are fish too, you know!), in a teeny-tiny barrel. With the barrel of the gun glued to the shark. And the trigger stuck on automatic, so all you really have to do is take credit for when the bullets hit the shark. Don't know why creationists find that so hard...)

Proceed with your information binge...

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Can't I just look to the left?

So, I'm registering for the JREF forums, and I get to the part where it asks me for my e-mail address. I enter it in, and immediately to the right is another box asking me for my e-mail address for "confirmation." Having seen this many times before, I resort to my old "shift-home, ctrl-C, tab, ctrl-V" routine and proceed. Asking for confirmation of an e-mail address is standard practice these days, but how is it that no one ever questions the purpose of it?

This whole confirmation thing in general started with selecting passwords. Generally, passwords are obscured as you type them (in case someone is looking over your shoulder), looking like a series of circles or asterisks. This means that you can't look back at it and confirm you put it in just how you wanted it, so one slip up could prevent you from ever remembering it. The solution to this was to ask people to put in their passwords twice, so if there was a slip-up in one, they'd get a chance to try again.

When it became common to ask for e-mail addresses as part of registration, they were similarly obscured for privacy. Then, since they were obscured, they put in the same second entry for confirmation. Since then, however, obscuring the e-mail address has fallen out of favor (privacy isn't as critical as security), so you can now see it clearly as you type it. But when this change was made, whoever was in charge apparently forgot to remove the confirmation box (or didn't know its purpose, or something), so that stayed.

The result is that all of the current forms follow the trend and ask for your e-mail address twice, and you have to type it twice in plain view. Them being too dumb to remove the confirmation box results in the implication that we're too dumb to look two inches (5cm if you prefer) to the left and check for ourselves that we got it right.

There are a few designers who have figured this out and don't bother with it, but surprisingly the JREF wasn't skeptical about this particular trend.

Proceed with your information binge...

Put on your tux and tails...

...it's awards night at Interverbal with the 41st edition of the Skeptic's Circle.

"I thought you said people dress up for the opera!" - Jerry Seinfeld
"People do, I don't." - Kramer

Proceed with your information binge...

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Plugging the "Enemy"

Andrew Kneller, the coworker I quote in a previous post has recently started his own blog. He's a reasonably intelligent creationist who's willing to ask questions, so I'd encourage anyone up for some intelligent conversation to check him out. You can find his blog at Delving the Creationist Mind.

Proceed with your information binge...

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

The Multiple Endpoints Phenomenon

If you haven't yet read it, I highly recommend Thomas Gilovich's How we know what isn't so: The fallibility of human reason in everyday life. It's a very good and entertaining (to an infophiliac, at least) read, covering a lot of the reasons that people end up believing many stupid things. Most of the concepts he discusses in it are now in common use in the Skeptical community, such as the confirmation bias, pareidolia, the Texas sharpshooter fallacy, and others.

But there's one big one that seems to be missing, for some reason: The multiple endpoints phenomenon. The discussions surrounding shoehorning come close to it, but I feel that this is a subject that deserves consideration and study on it's own.

So what is it?

Avid watchers of Everybody Loves Raymond may remember this scene. Ray and his brother, Robert, are having a little competition over who can be the first to toss a kernel of popcorn (or something, let's say popcorn) into a bowl. They alternate tosses for a while, both of them consistently failing. Eventually, Robert grabs a double handful of popcorn and tosses it at the bowl. A few fall in, and he immediately claims victory.

Breaking it down, here's what happens: At first, they try to throw the popcorn in individually. This has a single endpoint of success: that the popcorn goes in. Then Robert throws a bunch at once. This has multiple successful endpoints: one for each individual kernel going in. A few of these go in, so Robert claims success. He points to the endpoints he reached and used those declare victory.

Simply put, the multiple endpoints phenomenon describes how if you have a specific measure for success, it's hard to achieve it, but the more you generalize it, the easier it gets. What you have to watch out for is people who act like they had a specific measure when in fact they were going from more generalized criteria.

For another example, try to find someone who shares your birthday. Not very easy, as only one out of every 365 people will (discounting leap years here). Now, try to find any two people who share the same birthday. Chances are you'll find a pair before you've asked even 30 people. Making your search just the tiniest bit more vague in this case makes it take 1/12 as long, as you have many more places you can end up. (Okay, my math might be off slightly, but I don't have a decent calculator with me right now.)

And now, here's the trick. Turn it around, and ask what the odds are of this occuring in a vacuum. What is the probability that these two people would share a birthday? 1/365. What you're doing now is pretending that this particular endpoint is what you were shooting for, rather than just one of many possibilities, making it look like something special has happened here.

Where do we see this happening?

The multiple endpoints phenomenon shows up in many places, but I've chosen just three to highlight here which I believe will have relevance to my audience. You've probably seen these before, but understanding of multiple endpoints will help illuminate the patterns and allow you to spot similar circumstances in the future.

1. Cold Reading

John Edwards: I'm getting something... possible an "A" or an "M"...

Woman in audience: My husband Adam just died! *sob*

John Edwards: Yes, that's it!

*Audience applauds*

Step 1: John Edwards makes a generalized prediction: someone in the audience will be there with something in mind that has an "A" or an "M." He's setting up many, many endpoints.

Step 2: One of the endpoints is a hit. The woman's husband, Adam, just died, and "Adam" has 2 A's and an M. Quite fitting, but in an audience that size, very likely that someone would say something.

Step 3: Edwards claims that this was what he was sensing in the first place. He's gone back and changed his original prediction from one with many endpoints to one with just a single endpoint to make it look like something amazing has happened here.

Step 4: John Edwards is nominated for and wins the title of "Biggest Douche in the Universe."

2. Pseudoscience

Fred Sicher and Elisabeth Targ set up an "experiment" to determine if prayer (or directing "positive energies" at a person) would improve their health. In this particular study, they set up a decent, randomized, double-blind test with twenty AIDS patients received Distant Healing (or DH) and twenty being a control group. The study set out to test the death rate of the patients.

At the end of the study, only a single subject had died. This meant that the results were inconclusive, or that they failed to confirm the hypothesis the DH has an effect. If they'd stopped there, it would have been good (if ultimately useless) science. But in the end, they twisted it to make it look like DH actually worked.

What happened is that after this result, Targ urged the researchers to change the goal of the study to instead measure the effect of DH against a long list of AIDS-related symptoms. When they found that the subjects in the DH group stayed in the hospital and visited doctors significantly less than the control group, they reported on their study as if this was the original. They even failed to mention that in one category, psychological stress, the DH group was significantly worse than the control group.

Step 1: They casted the net wide, allowing for a significant change in any one of multiple criteria to count as a success for DH. Many endpoints are set up.

Step 2: A couple criteria were found in which DH had statistically significant positive results. But they were studying 23 criteria, and the threshold p-value was 0.05. Seems quite likely that at least one would fit it. They had multiple ones, but some, like number of hospital visits and days spend in the hospital, would be expected to have a high correlation. A few of these endpoints are hit.

Step 3: They report only on the criteria that yielded positive results, and acted as if this was what their study had set out to test in the first place, making it look like DH worked.

Step 4: Targ dies of a brain tumor in 2003, despite being one of the most prayed-for people on the planet.

(Source: http://skepdic.com/sichertarg.html)

3. Everyday Life

There are many coincidences that could occur in your life on any given day. You might be thinking of someone the moment they phone you. You might be thinking of a particular episode of a TV show, and it's on later that day. You might run into someone with the same name as you. You might be thinking of a person you haven't seen in a long time, and then later hear mention of them.

The possibilities are countless, and many of them do come up. Thanks to the confirmation bias, the few hits are remembered while the misses are forgotten. In this way, we fool ourselves into thinking that we started off with many fewer endpoints than we actually did, so seemingly unlikely stuff must be happening more than it should.

Every future coincidence only adds to this pile of evidence, until eventually you determine that there just has to be some force guiding the universe.

Edit: Browsing the Swift archives, it appears that there is indeed some nutjob claiming that all coincidences are winks from God proving his existence. Read about it here (Unfortunately, the original article it references is no longer available). Let's just hope not too many people fall for this.

Conclusion

Once you understand it, multiple endpoints is a potent weapon in the Skeptic's arsenal. It shows up in many more places than you might think. The problem you might face is in explaining it to others. For that, I recommend a metaphor like the ones I used earlier in this post or "It's like fishing with a net, and then, once you catch a fish, claiming you nailed it with a spear."

Proceed with your information binge...